Saturday, March 21, 2009

My current Derby contender list ...

- This is random, in no particular order and of course VERY flexible ... with 6 weeks to go anything can happen ...

Friesan Fire - His performance in Louisiana last weekend literally blew my socks off! If the track is sloppy on May 2nd, we've definitely seen that he can separate himself from the field!

Old Fashioned
- His loss in the Rebel doesn't deter me, just raised some questions. Dominguez had no business moving him as early as he did, and though I hate to say it I really believe his poor timing has cost him the mount.

Dunkirk (right) - If he wins the Florida Derby next week and gets the graded earnings to run in the Derby, I'm not sure there will be any stopping him. We'll see ... and I can't wait to find out if he can overcome that silly "no experience as a two-year-old" curse.

Quality Road - I doubt he can beat Dunkirk in the Florida Derby, but if he can then he will certainly earn a spot near the top of the list!

I Want Revenge - This horse is definitely on the improve, just wondering if we haven't already seen his peak performance. If he's truly great we should get those answers soon enough.

The Pamplemousse
- Dominating in the Sham, and he's beaten the likes of Square Eddie. Definitely another gray to watch, the Santa Anita Derby is shaping up to be a big prep! Would like to see what happens if he doesn't go wire-to-wire.

Pioneerof the Nile
- Can't wait to see his showdown with The Pamplemousse. April 4th will bring more answers for both horses.

Chocolate Candy - This horse has heart; gotta see what he does on April 4th as well.

Other horses worth mentioning: Theregoesjojo, Win Willy, Papa Clem, Patena, Beethoven, Imperial Council, Warrior's Reward

- Hold Me Back was a shocker today in the Lane's End, and Kent Desormeaux might have a tough choice to make if Theregoesjojo also makes it in - right now he is at #27 on the graded earnings list. A lot of "musical jockeys" going on, as Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss put it today. Should be interesting to see who ends up with which mount come May 2nd!

- Really disappointed in Bittel Road and West Side Bernie, though I admit Bittel Road was my choice and he finished 10th. I'd love for Todd Pletcher to get a Derby win this year, and right now it's looking like Dunkirk is his best shot.

- Larry Jones still has two incredible chances between both Friesan Fire and Old Fashioned. Not hard to imagine either horse running away with it at this point.

- Either way, this seems to be turning into one of the strongest three-year-old crops I think we've seen in a while. That makes it SO much harder to narrow down the choices. Happy we have a lot of high quality horses though, that's never a bad thing!

- Of course I have to bring up the Kentucky Derby Challenge. Mafaaz (left) will be coming over, and apparently might run in the Bluegrass before Derby - which makes me feel a little better about the whole thing. I'm thrilled that they have the desire to open the race up more by allowing an international horse a spot, but in all honesty it is a tough enough battle already. Every year there are well deserving horses who get kicked out of that 20-horse gate. Essentially now it is a 19-horse gate because one horse gets a "free pass." We'll see how that works out. I don't think anyone believes Mafaaz has a chance in hell of winning on May 2nd, myself included, but what a story it would be if he did!

- On a side note, Rags to Riches gave birth to a filly (right) last week and she is absolutely divine! Aside from her leg markings, she looks just like Mom! Thrilled that it's a filly. The bottom line always passes the genes on much better. Maybe next year we'll see a colt from her, but for now this little filly has some big horseshoes to fill!

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