My current Derby contender list ...

- This is random, in no particular order and of course VERY flexible ... with 6 weeks to go anything can happen ...

Friesan Fire - His performance in Louisiana last weekend literally blew my socks off! If the track is sloppy on May 2nd, we've definitely seen that he can separate himself from the field!

Old Fashioned - His loss in the Rebel doesn't deter me, just raised some questions. Dominguez had no business moving him as early as he did, and though I hate to say it I really believe his poor timing has cost him the mount.

Dunkirk (right) - If he wins the Florida Derby next week and gets the graded earnings to run in the Derby, I'm not sure there will be any stopping him. We'll see ... and I can't wait to find out if he can overcome that silly "no experience as a two-year-old" curse.

Quality Road - I doubt he can beat Dunkirk in the Florida Derby, but if he can then he will certainly earn a spot near the top of the list!

I Want Revenge - This horse is definitely on the improve, just wondering if we haven't already seen his peak performance. If he's truly great we should get those answers soon enough.

The Pamplemousse - Dominating in the Sham, and he's beaten the likes of Square Eddie. Definitely another gray to watch, the Santa Anita Derby is shaping up to be a big prep! Would like to see what happens if he doesn't go wire-to-wire.

Pioneerof the Nile - Can't wait to see his showdown with The Pamplemousse. April 4th will bring more answers for both horses.

Chocolate Candy - This horse has heart; gotta see what he does on April 4th as well.

Other horses worth mentioning: Theregoesjojo, Win Willy, Papa Clem, Patena, Beethoven, Imperial Council, Warrior's Reward

- Hold Me Back was a shocker today in the Lane's End, and Kent Desormeaux might have a tough choice to make if Theregoesjojo also makes it in - right now he is at #27 on the graded earnings list. A lot of "musical jockeys" going on, as Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss put it today. Should be interesting to see who ends up with which mount come May 2nd!

- Really disappointed in Bittel Road and West Side Bernie, though I admit Bittel Road was my choice and he finished 10th. I'd love for Todd Pletcher to get a Derby win this year, and right now it's looking like Dunkirk is his best shot.

- Larry Jones still has two incredible chances between both Friesan Fire and Old Fashioned. Not hard to imagine either horse running away with it at this point.

- Either way, this seems to be turning into one of the strongest three-year-old crops I think we've seen in a while. That makes it SO much harder to narrow down the choices. Happy we have a lot of high quality horses though, that's never a bad thing!

- Of course I have to bring up the Kentucky Derby Challenge. Mafaaz (left) will be coming over, and apparently might run in the Bluegrass before Derby - which makes me feel a little better about the whole thing. I'm thrilled that they have the desire to open the race up more by allowing an international horse a spot, but in all honesty it is a tough enough battle already. Every year there are well deserving horses who get kicked out of that 20-horse gate. Essentially now it is a 19-horse gate because one horse gets a "free pass." We'll see how that works out. I don't think anyone believes Mafaaz has a chance in hell of winning on May 2nd, myself included, but what a story it would be if he did!

- On a side note, Rags to Riches gave birth to a filly (right) last week and she is absolutely divine! Aside from her leg markings, she looks just like Mom! Thrilled that it's a filly. The bottom line always passes the genes on much better. Maybe next year we'll see a colt from her, but for now this little filly has some big horseshoes to fill!

ESPN to air key preps ...

All is quiet on the Triple Crown front at the moment while there is a normal gap between major prep races, so in the meantime I was happy to learn that ESPN hasn't completely abandoned the sport of kings!

The network will be covering some of the major upcoming Derby preps starting on March 21st.

With Larry Jones pointing Old Fashioned toward the Arkansas Derby, I'm especially looking forward to seeing that race live!

Is it too early to have my Derby horse?

I still want to see what develops with horses like Stardom Bound, Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire and even Capt. Candyman Can before I make it official ... but after the Southwest today I think I'm pretty set on Old Fashioned!

He just has something special, no doubt about it! Sure it was mainly two-horse race between Old Fashioned and Silver City the whole way ... the rest of the field never really came close to the front ... but he showed that he has heart. So far this horse can run just about anything down, in any fashion, and he still comes away looking like he doesn't even break a sweat. Just. Wow. Let's see how he comes back from this.

Weeding out the competition ...

It's getting more and more difficult to weed through the names, as it does every year. Overwhelming, really.

Looking at the list of 401 Triple Crown nominees alone will make you cross-eyed!

If you pay attention to the first Future Wager, Old Fashioned and Capt. Candyman Can (right) are both co-favorites right now at 10-1. But a closer look and you'll see that the REAL favorite is every other three-year-old that didn't make the cut, at 5-2. Just one more sign that we're way too early in the game to be picking sides.

One thing is for certain, however. We will know a little more after this holiday weekend is over. More specifically, we will know more by the time Monday evening rolls around.

I think it is safe to say that I won't be the only one paying close attention to how Old Fashioned runs in the Southwest on Monday! If he wins, no matter how he does it ... I'm gonna have a hard time bumping him off the top of my list for anyone!

Old Fashioned BULLET!

Just skimming through this article on Patena, I learn that "at Oaklawn Park Thursday, Old Fashioned, who arrived at Hot Springs recently, turned in a bullet half-mile breeze in :48 2/5, the fastest of six works at the distance."

WOW! That's one heck of a breeze!

What I wouldn't give to see video of that!

In and out ...

Well, Saratoga Sinner is out of the Triple Crown bid. So much for that amazing performance in the Holy Bull. He looked promising too, but there are plenty of others to consider ... as always. Hopefully he'll heal up OK and they won't push him too hard. I know all too well, from very personal experience, what chipped knees can mean for thoroughbreds.

Seems even Square Eddie is facing some setbacks, which bums me out a bit because his last work was a nice one. Since horses don't have "shins" I'm assuming they're referring to either a digital extensor tendon injury or something more serious with the cannon bone (though I hope not). They could also be referring to his tibia, but less likely. Not a huge thing to miss 30 days this early in the season if that's all they're planning on and it's just a sprain or swelling of some sort. He could still rebound, but it definitely hurts his career and his development - physical and mental - toward preparing him for any chance at the Derby. Then again, look at what Big Brown did last year. Won't count Eddie out just yet. Still, it's not a good sign.

Finally some news on Midshipman (and Vineyard Haven) from Dubai. They are doing well and getting ready for their three-year-old debuts. I'm hoping the one they are planning to send back to the US is Midshipman, personally I think he is the most promising but I'm only basing that on his performance in the BC Juvenile. Since we haven't seen anything from either horse since they've been shipped overseas it's hard to judge, so clearly they know better what they are working with.

It's sounding more and more as though they might just be thinking about pointing Stardom Bound towards the Derby instead of the Oaks. And I quote ... "Her new connections have said they could tangle with males in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) this spring." So we might see a filly running with the boys this year again after all! Should definitely be exciting to see what she does on Saturday in the Las Virgenes!

Also looking forward to Pioneerof the Nile (right) making his three-year-old debut this Saturday in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Just one more to keep an eye on. There will be a few good horses in that race ... I Want Revenge, Brother Keith, Bittel Road, etc. ... so it should be fascinating to see who comes out on top.

The Risen Star should be another good race on Saturday. Lots of good horses there, or else a lot of equal quality horses. We'll find out. Friesan Fire, Indygo Mountain, Giant Oak, Uno Mass, Flying Pegasus. Take your pick.

They are already making Old Fashioned the early favorite for the Derby, which I hate since right now he's the one I'm focused on. I typically avoid the favorites, but then again the past few years have usually seen several co-favorites so we'll see. Plus Big Brown, Street Sense and Barbaro all were early favorites at one point or another ... and I typically stuck with them right along even after their support wavered. Eh, it's worked out for me so far. Looking forward to his Feb. 16th debut, and wondering if we'll hear anything about the breeze he was supposed to have this morning or not.

The list is going to get VERY long, as it does every year around this time, but hopefully by late March or early April it will start to thin out as the best horses rise to the top. ;)

An "Old Fashioned" Crown?

I like the big names.

Square Eddie caught my eye last year as a two-year-old. Still keeping him in my sights.

Midshipman sure is impressive; he has the stamina but we don't know what plans for him will be.

Stardom Bound brings the girl power.

Haven't had a chance to catch up on all of the top contenders yet ... but I am looking forward to a particular horse's three-year-old debut in a couple of weeks. He seems to have that "it" quality, very reminiscent of recent champions like Barbaro, Street Sense and Big Brown. Yes, I have actually picked the Derby winner successfully for the last 3 years in a row and I'm trying hard not to break my lucky streak!

I think I only have to say his name once.

Old Fashioned.


Can't wait to see what he brings as a three-year-old, but his career as a two-year-old was absolutely dominating!

A pleasure to watch. It will be fun to see what he does.

Case in point ...


The Remsen Stakes on November 29th ... and this wasn't even his most impressive winning margin!



Yes, he controlled the pace. Yes, he had easy fractions through the first half-mile. Still, he won with such ease that it's hard to ignore.

Now I learn he worked 5 furlongs in 58.80 yesterday morning!

Sure, he's a front-runner, but it seems as though he can hold off the competition and, in fact, he almost appears to accelerate further when they run at him!

Considering the tragedy Larry Jones had last year with Eight Belles, let's hope he has a winner this season with Old Fashioned. It sure would be a high note for him to retire on!